Can 3-D Films Keep the Lights On in Movie Theaters?
Marketing and media research firm Nielsen predicted that 2009 would be a good year for 3-D cinema, and it looks like they’re right on target. Box Office Mojo, a website that tracks box office revenue, reports a nine-figure box office success for 3-D films such as Up, Monsters vs. Aliens and Ice Age 3. If the hype behind James Cameron’s Avatar is any indication, then it’s also likely to be a huge hit. The Associated Press reports that Avatar has a $237 million budget, placing it among the most expensive movies ever made.
But will 3-D technology be enough to revive movie theaters that have progressively been losing market share to TVs, DVDs and the Internet? For now, it seems unlikely.
For one, to show films in 3-D, exhibitors need to invest in digital screens and projectors. With a slew of 3-D films in the pipeline, Hollywood studios have offered to help finance part of the substantial cost, but not all exhibitors have made the transition. Currently, Nielsen reports that there are just over 1,000 3-D screens in the U.S. — a small number compared to the 38,990 total screens tallied by the National Association of Theatre Owners.
Exhibitors also balk at the cost of training staff on the new technology, as well as providing the audience with 3-D glasses. In fact, Regal Cinemas, the largest movie theater chain in the U.S., refused to show Ice Age 3 in 3-D unless its distributor, 20th Century Fox, provided the glasses.
But perhaps a more important factor is this: TV and even online outfits are also arming themselves with 3-D technology. Companies like Samsung Electronics, Sony, LG Electronics and Panasonic have unveiled their latest versions of 3-D TVs at this year's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. Digital media company Sonic Solutions also recently announced that it’s offering 3-D movies for PCs through its Roxio CinemaNow video service, and that it’s working with consumer electronics manufacturers to deliver 3-D content directly to Blu-ray Disc players and next-gen connected HDTVs (systems that allow users to browse the web, view JPEG photos, listen to MP3s and access various software services).
Entertainment publication Variety notes that ESPN, Fox Sports, 3ality Digital, the National Football League, the NBA and the NCAA are experimenting with 3-D.
Finally, tailing behind, but also joining the fray, is online video streaming, with current market leader YouTube recently enabling users to watch and create 3-D videos.
Perhaps the only saving grace — for now — for movie theaters is that 3-D TV sets and players are still rare and a lot more expensive than a movie ticket, and that online 3-D streaming still has a lot of kinks to iron out, as YouTube itself admits. But the theaters’ 3-D head start might not be much in the fast-changing world of digital media, so exhibitors are best advised to have a fallback plan if they don’t want to be edged out of the picture.
